CPI Inflation for the month of June-2019 came out at 8.9% as compared to 9.1% in May-19. Full-year Average Inflation for the period July-18 to June-19 was recorded at 7.34%. State Bank of Pakistan previously projected FY19 Inflation to average around 7.5%
Core inflation, which excludes the impact of Food and Energy prices, remained flat at 7.2% as compared to the same percentage recorded in last month. Average Core Inflation for the Fiscal Year ending at June-19 was recorded at 7.97%.
June-19 Inflation remained well below the consensus forecast owing to the reduction in Food Prices Post Ramzan, and less than the projected impact of Fuel Price Increase.
Future Inflation Outlook
The CPI Inflation may see a major increase in the upcoming months as revision in gas and electricity tariffs takes place. Calculations show that just increase in Electricity and Gas Tariffs is expected to contribute an increase of 1.5% in CPI Inflation.
Furthermore, Increased taxation, Currency Depreciation and Utility Tariff hike are expected to further push inflation upwards which may propel SBP to raise Interest Rates by 100bps in the upcoming Monetary Policy.